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DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/16 08:34

   Cotton Mixed Amid Weaker Exports, Dollar 

   December cotton has seen both sides of unchanged in a directionless trade.


By Keith Brown
DTN Cotton Contributing Analyst

   December cotton has seen both sides of unchanged in a directionless trade. 
Even with the U.S. dollar sharply breaking on shaky Brexit news, cotton still 
cannot generate any upside enthusiasm. 

   One reason is the on-going harvest pressure, and the other is weak sales and 
exports. This morning USDA reported another episode of lackluster business. Net 
sales for 2018/2019 were 67,600 running bales, down 26% from the previous week, 
but up noticeably on the four-week average. Top buyers were Pakistan (24,500), 
Vietnam (23,300), Malaysia (12,300), Mexico (6,900), and Turkey (5,600). 
Reductions were reported for China (7,000), Japan (4,100), Thailand (3,300), 
and South Korea (2,200). For 2019/2020, net sales of 45,900 running bales were 
primarily for China (22,000), Vietnam (11,000), South Korea (4,000), Thailand 
(3,500), and Mexico (3,100). Weekly shipments of 113,000 bales were down 25% 
from the previous week and 16% on the four-week average. Exports were primarily 
for Vietnam (39,900), Mexico (14,800), Pakistan (13,000), Bangladesh (8,900), 
and Thailand (6,400). Net sales of Pima totaling 16,200 RB for 2018/2019 were 
up noticeably from the previous week and up 345 on the four-week average.  
Increases were reported for China (12,000), India (2,900), and Pakistan 
(1,200). Exports of 3,300 RB were down 3% weekly and 33% on the four-week 
average. The destinations were India (3,000), Peru (100), Turkey (100), and 
Malaysia (100).

   Next week is Thanksgiving week, a traditional time for the market to post 
its final harvest low. Interestingly, the years 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 
2015 all saw the seasonal low emerge during that period, give or take. Of 
course, with the passing of time, the trade is nudging closer to the U.S.-China 
trade talks. We understand some preliminary conversations are now occurring, 
but the main negotiations will occur at the G-20 November 30. 

   For today, support for December cotton will be 76.62 cents and 75.37 cents, 
while resistance stands at 77.00 cents and 78.10 cents. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com


(BAS)

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