DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/21 11:50
Grains Mixed at Midday
Wheat is the midday leader, with corn unchanged, and soybeans slightly lower.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is higher at midday with the Dow up 170 points. The
interest rate products are mixed. The dollar index is 12 points lower. Energies
are mixed with crude 0.30 higher. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading.
Precious metals are higher with gold up $7.50.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with light two sided trade so far
with trade still looking to consolidate over the $3.42 area where we find the
10-day moving average. Ethanol margins are stable to softer with energies
weaker to start the week, with demand likely to bump up this week for
Thanksgiving travel. Basis and carry has shown further improvement with carry
getting close to 11 cents this morning. The weekly report showed harvest 90%
complete, 5% behind average, with things likely to wrap up this week with
stubbornly high moisture in some areas. On the December chart support is at the
new low at $3.36 1/2. Resistance is at the $3.48 3/4 50-day moving then the
$3.58 6-week high.
Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents lower overnight in continued quiet trade
with action holding above the nearby support areas. Meal is $1 to $2 lower and
oil is 10 to 20 points higher. South American weather looks like more of the
same in the near term, with the Argentina forecast edging drier, with overall
issues remaining limited but focus will ramp up as we head to December. Export
business has been quiet for the bulk of November on the daily wire, which has
raised some concern but 130,000 metric tons were announced to China today. The
weekly report showed harvest at 96%, 1 percentage point behind average. India
increased palm oil duties to 30%, which are weighing on world veg oil prices.
On the January chart, got back above all the major moving averages, with the
20-day at $9.86 the first level of support which we are just above, and the
recent high at $10.08 the next level of resistance.
Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents higher at midday with buying picking up during
the day session with a dry forecast and declines in the condition ratings. The
plains look pretty warm and dry the next 7-12 days. Weekly crop conditions
declined 2 percentage points to 52% good to excellent, 11% poor to very poor,
with 88% emerged, same as average. Spillover support from row crops will be
needed to help with short covering but that looks limited in the near term.
Basis has firmed a bit on the plains in recent days but overall remains wide.
On the December Kansas City support is the $4.13 1/2 low, with the 10-day and
20-day at $4.24, as resistance.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered Advisor.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2017 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
Get your local Cash Bids emailed to you each morning from DTN – click here
to sign up for DTN Snapshot.